150 Years of Decarbonization

MICHAEL CRICHTON, SPEECH, November 6, 2005, Complexity Theory and Environmental Management - Excerpt: Notice that in 1968, when [Paul] Ehrlich published his book The Population Bomb, world fertility was already in decline. Ehrlich was thus urging people to do what they had already been doing for about 10 years. It’s not clear whether he knew this or not. But certainly when he said, “The battle to feed all of humanity is over…. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate..." he was simply wrong. As you see, after his book appeared the death rate remained flat in developed countries, and it continued to fall for another 10 years in developing countries.

Ehrlich’s procedure—crying out in desperation to urge what’s already happening—isn’t unique. We have a contemporary example in the call of politicians and activists to end our dependence on fossil fuels, and move to a “carbon neutral” lifestyle. Their call to action is, however, a bit late.

According to Jesse Ausubel of the Rockefeller Institute, industrialized nations have been decarbonizing their energy sources for 150 years, meaning we are moving away from carbon toward hydrogen. In other words, the ratio of carbon to hydrogen decreases as you go from wood and hay (1:1) to coal to oil to gas (1:4). Here is an illustration from one of his articles:



Ausubel expects the trend to continue through this century as we move toward pure hydrogen—without the assistance of lawyers and activists. Obviously if a trend has been continuously operating since the days of Lincoln and Queen Victoria, it probably does not need the assistance of organizations like the Sierra Club and the NRDC, which are showing up about a hundred years too late.

(Click illustrations to enlarge and your 'back arrow' to return)






Ausubel’s ideas are controversial to some, but not to sites like Sustainability Now:









Comment added: This is awesome progress.



Read Michael Crichton's entire speech: Complexity Theory and Environmental Management

(John) Michael Crichton, 1942-2008