U.S. Senate Races & a Filibuster-Proof Senate

Michael Barone of U.S. News & World Report, writes,

Currently there are 51 Democrats in the U.S. Senate, including Joe Lieberman, but Democrats are seriously contesting 11 Republican-held seats and there is a by-no-means trivial chance that they could win each one. Meanwhile, Republicans are seriously contesting either zero Democrat-held seats, or only one, that of Mary Landrieu of Louisiana.

Races to watch (leader of recent polls shown first):
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) vs. John Kennedy (D-turned-R)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D) vs. Jim Gilmore (R)
Mew Mexico: Tom Udall (D) vs. Steve Pearce (R)
Colorado: Mark Udall (D) vs. Bob Schaffer (R)
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) vs. John Sununu (R)
Alaska: Mark Begich (D) vs. Sen. Ted Stevens (R-incumbent, recently convicted on 7 counts of failing to report gifts)
Mississippi: Roger Wicker (D – recently appointed to succeed Trent Lott) vs. former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) vs. Sen. Gordon Smith (R)
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) vs. Elizabeth Dole (R)
Georgia: Saxby Chambliss (R) vs. Jim Martin (D)
Minnesota: Norm Coleman (R) vs. Al Franken (D)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R - Senate Minority Leader) vs. Bruce Lunsford (D)

Barone continues,

What’s my bottom line? If I had to be $1,000 on each of these races, I would bet on Smith and Dole to lose, and Coleman, Chambliss, and McConnell to win. That, assuming Sununu doesn’t somehow pull it out, would leave the Democrats with 58 seats. (But I could easily be wrong on any or all of these races, and I reserve the right to change my prediction before Tuesday.) Fifty-eight Democrats would be enough to stop filibusters if they can get a couple of Republicans (and not drop any Democrats) on an issue, but not enough to run the table.

It's a little scary to think that major differences in public policy can be settled by the outcomes in just a few close Senate races. But then, major differences in public policy were settled by George W. Bush's paper-thin victory in 2000. Our representative democracy gives both parties huge incentives to squeeze just a few more votes out, because they can make a huge difference in the long run.